7/14/2023 0 Comments Common dreams![]() The “peace” that is discussed in foreign policy circles in the West often comes with several asterisks: loss of territory and a fragile state for Ukraine, lack of prosecution of war crimes for Russia, few guarantees that the conflict will not resume after a strategic pause. A cold war threatens to descend upon the larger world order. This moment for east-west relations is bleak. priorities, primarily the containment of China? How long can the Biden administration maintain the flow of military aid to Ukraine, given a divided Congress and weakening public support? What role can the United States play in advancing a just peace in Ukraine? What plans does the United States have for transatlantic relations after the war is over, and in what way does Russia fit into those plans? For instance, to what degree is the United States committed to weakening Russia further by supporting either a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive or a prolonged war of attrition? Or is the United States eager to push for negotiations between the aggressor and the victim to resolve a conflict that distracts attention from other strategic U.S. national interests, but it has shifted the means by which Washington pursues those interests.Ĭertain things remain unclear, however, about U.S. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not fundamentally altered U.S. The Biden administration has warned China-and other countries-not to supply Russia with weapons or violate technology bans. All talk of a “strategic reset” of relations with Russia, which was popular during the Obama years and seemed again possible under Trump, has disappeared. The skepticism that Donald Trump brought to the trans-Atlantic relationship, with his threats to withdraw the United States from NATO, has been decisively reversed. ![]() ![]() The United States has tried to turn these divisions into assets by expanding ties with allies, isolating Russia’s few supporters, and pushing the fence-sitters away from the Kremlin. Russia’s actions have divided the world into three blocs: illiberal supporters of the Kremlin and its imperial policy, the largely democratic club of nations who directly support Ukraine, and the much larger group of fence-sitters who generally acknowledge that the invasion was a violation of international law but are reluctant to break with Moscow. The Biden administration has calibrated this balance between military assistance and geopolitical caution within a rapidly changing global context. This caution reflects in particular the anxieties of the Pentagon-a risk-averse institution-about provoking an escalation of the conflict both horizontally (into adjoining countries) and vertically (involving non-conventional weapons like tactical nuclear devices). It has hesitated to supply Kyiv with every weapon system on its wish list, whether fighter jets or long-range missiles. It has refused to support a no-fly zone over the country, and it has not sent surveillance planes over the Black Sea for fear of engaging Russian forces. forces to the battlefield, aside from a handful of Special Forces. The Biden administration has led a global campaign to: condemn Russia levy both multilateral and unilateral sanctions against the Kremlin and its domestic supporters persuade allies to provide military and economic assistance of their own strengthen NATO and usher in new NATO members and mobilize energy supplies for Europe to substitute for Russian imports.ĭespite this broad-based effort to defend Ukraine, the United States has nonetheless displayed a certain degree of caution. support for Ukraine over the last year has not been confined to military hardware. After Russia invaded, that figure skyrocketed to over $31 billion (plus more than twice that amount in non-military assistance). It had helped Ukraine bolster its defense with $400 million in military aid in 2021, on top of the $2 billion provided between 20. Prior to the invasion, the Biden administration had been warning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly for a month and privately for several months of the likelihood of an intervention. ![]() With Joe Biden in the White House, having replaced someone who made no effort to conceal his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, this U.S. Originally published in Institute for Policy Studies.Īfter Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the United States quickly moved to support the government in Kyiv.
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